Updated October 2026: this post was first published in August 2020 to share the first report of the survey. We have expanded it with findings drawn from the report’s thematic summaries.
The aspirations survey examines the multiple dimensions of vulnerability and the sense of belonging among internally displaced people in four Somali cities: Baidoa, Dollow, Kismayo and Mogadishu. It compares different groups of displaced people (those living in and out of settlements, displaced by conflict or by climate-related causes, in male- and female-headed households, recently displaced or in protracted displacement, displaced once or several times) with host and non-host communities, focusing on access to jobs, safety, social cohesion, housing and forced eviction. The aim is a fuller picture of displacement dynamics to inform area-based durable solutions programming. The survey sets out to understand the aspirations, intentions, and push and pull factors of displacement-affected communities; the underlying issues that influence displacement, return and (re)integration; and the factors that shape people’s decisions to move and the impact on the wider community.
How the survey was done
The survey combines structured household interviews with semi-structured focus group discussions in each location. The target was 500 households per location, and 2,010 households (658 host community and 1,352 displaced) were surveyed between June and September 2019, each through an in-depth phone interview that forms the baseline. In total, 60 focus group discussions were held with host and displaced participants, and survey group leaders, each selected from a group of ten households, gave monthly key informant interviews during data collection. The survey is designed to be repeated annually over three years so that displacement-affected communities are heard over time. It was commissioned by ReDSS in partnership with the Danwadaag Solutions Programme, the Durable Solutions Programme and the RE-INTEG consortia, and conducted by IMPACT Initiatives.
How people came to be where they are
Much of the displacement is recent and local, from neighbouring districts and regions towards nearby urban centres. In Mogadishu, 68 percent of displaced respondents had arrived within the last three years, against 50 percent in Baidoa, 49 percent in Kismayo and 10 percent in Dollow. Many had moved more than once: 56 percent in Kismayo and 48 percent in Dollow had lived in at least one other location first. Conflict was the main first reason for leaving in Mogadishu (79 percent), Kismayo (62 percent) and Dollow (61 percent), while drought was the main cause in Baidoa. The absence of conflict was the top reason for choosing the current location in Mogadishu, Kismayo and Dollow, while in Baidoa 45 percent cited food assistance. The vast majority of respondents intended to stay where they were for the next six months.
Housing, land and eviction
Host community households owned their land far more often than displaced households in every location; in Dollow, 63 percent of host households did so against 26 percent of displaced households. Very few respondents held documents securing their tenure. Outside Dollow, both the perceived risk of eviction and reported evictions were substantial, reaching 39 percent among displaced households in Kismayo. Dollow stood apart, with 1 percent of displaced households reporting eviction in the past two years, which the report links to displacement sites built on public land where local authorities secured tenure arrangements that protect against eviction. The report describes forced evictions as a key obstacle to durable solutions.
Read the full report and executive summary and the thematic summaries on displacement patterns, economic development, social integration, safety and security and housing, land and property.
Acknowledgements
We thank the Directorate of National Statistics in the Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development and federal member state colleagues; the members of the Technical Advisory Committee, including the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office, the CCCM Cluster, IOM, DRC, BRCiS, Samuel Hall, Africa’s Voices Foundation, MESH, the World Bank and GREDO; and, above all, the displaced people, returnees and host community members in Baidoa, Dollow, Kismayo and Mogadishu who shared their experiences. The report was edited by Kate McGuinness, with financial support from DFID, Danida and the EU.
References
ReDSS and IMPACT Initiatives (2020). Understanding intentions and aspirations in support of durable solutions 2019: Baidoa, Dollow, Kismayo and Mogadishu. https://www.regionaldss.org/e-library/aspirations-survey-2019/
